November 2, 2009
Birth date:
Married to Natasha Lance Rogoff, two children (Gabriel and Juliana)
Massachusetts Institute of
Technology, Ph.D., February 1980 Doctoral
Dissertation: Essays on Expectations and Exchange Rate Volatility.
Yale University, B.A./M.A. summa cum
laude, Honors in Economics, May 1975.
Chief Economist and Director of Research, International Monetary
Fund, 2001–2003.
Director, Harvard Center for
International Development, 2003–2004.
Professor of Economics and International Affairs, Princeton University, 1992–94; Charles and
Marie Robertson Professor of International Affairs, 1995–1999.
Professor of Economics, University
of California at Berkeley, 1989–1991.
Associate Professor of Economics, University
of Wisconsin-Madison, 1985–1988.
Economist, International Finance Division, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System, 1980–1983; Section Chief, Trade and Financial Studies Section,
1984.
Economist, Research Department, International
Monetary Fund, Oct. 1982 – Sept. 1983.
BP-LSE Visiting Centennial Professor, London
School of Economics, 1998–99 academic year.
Morgenstern Visiting Professor of Economics, New York University, spring semester 1995.
Visiting Scholar, Bank of Japan,
Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, summer 1991.
Visiting Scholar, Research Department, The
World Bank, summer 1989.
Visiting Scholar, Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System, International Finance Division, 1988,
1994.
Visitor, Institute for International
Economic Studies,
Visiting Scholar, Research Department, The
International Monetary Fund, 1988, 1994.
Consultant to the Bank of Portugal,
summer 1977.
American Academy of Arts and
Sciences, Fellow, 2001 –
Econometric Society,
Fellow, 1991–
World Economic Forum Fellow, 2003 –
John Simon Guggenheim Fellow, 1998.
German Marshall Foundation
Fellow, 1991.
National Fellow, The Hoover Institution,
1986.
Alfred P. Sloan Research Fellow, 1986.
National Science Fellowship, MIT, 1975–78.
Biographee in Who’s Who in
America, 1971 –
Vice President, American Economic Association, 2007
Research Associate, National Bureau of
Economic Research, 1985 –
Member, Council on Foreign Relations, 2004
–
Member, Trilateral Commission, 2003
–
Member, Group of Thirty, 2008 –
Member, Economic Advisory Panel, Federal
Reserve Bank of New York, 2004 –
Member, Academic Advisory Panel, Central
Bank of Sweden, 2005 –
Co-editor, NBER
Macroeconomics Annual, 2000 –
Member, Advisory Committee, Institute for
International Economics, 2001 –
Member, Advisory Board, Journal of
Economic Perspectives, 2005 –
Member, Program Committee, 2005 American
Economic Association Meetings
Centre for Economic Policy Research,
Scientific Advisory Committee, 2000–2003
Panel Member, Economic Policy,
2002–2003
Honorary Advisor to the Bank of
Japan, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, 2001.
Program Committee, Alfred P. Sloan
Research Fellowship in Economics, 1993–1999.
Co-Organizer, International Seminar on Macroeconomics, 1994, 1998.
Associate Editor: Review
of Economics and Statistics, 1993 –; Economics
Letters, 1993–1996; Journal
of International Economics, 1995 –; Quarterly
Journal of Economics, 1984–1995; Journal
of Economic Perspectives, 1987–1990.
Member, National Science Foundation
Advisory Panel on Economics, 1988–89.
International Grandmaster of Chess, 1978
– present (inactive).
This Time Is Different:
Eight Centuries of Financial Folly (with Carmen M. Reinhart),
Foundations
of International Macroeconomics (with Maurice Obstfeld).
Workbook
for Foundations of International Macroeconomics (by Maurice Obstfeld,
Kenneth Rogoff and Gita Gopinath).
Handbook
of International Economics, vol. 3, (Gene Grossman and Kenneth Rogoff,
editors).
International Debt and International Financial Institutions
“The Aftermath of Financial Crises” (with Carmen M. Reinhart), American Economic Review 99 (May 2009) 466-472. Also available as NBER Working Paper No. 14656, January 2009.
“Is the 2007 US Sub-Prime Financial Crisis So Different?” (with Carmen Reinhart), American Economics Review 98 (May 2008) pp 339-344. Also appeared as NBER Working Paper #13761, January 2008.
“Fiscal Conservatism, Exchange Rate Flexibility, and the Next Generation of
Debt Crises,” Cato
Journal, vol 25 (Winter 2005), 33-39.
“Grants
versus Loans for Development Banks” (with Jeremy Bulow), American
Economic Review 95(2), May 2005, 393-97.
“Serial
Default And The “Paradox” Of Rich To Poor Capital Flows,” (with Carmen M.
Reinhart), American Economic Review 94(2), May 2004, 52-58. An earlier
version was published as NBER
Working Paper #10296, February 2004.
"Debt
Intolerance" (with Carmen M. Reinhart and Miguel A. Savastano), in
William Brainard and George Perry (eds.), Brookings Papers on Economic
Activity 1: 2003, 1-74. An earlier version appeared as NBER Working Paper 9908, August
2003.
“Bankruptcy
Procedures for Sovereigns: A History of Ideas, 1976-2001,” (with
Jeromin Zettelmeyer), International Monetary Fund Staff Papers 49, September
2002, 471-507.
“Institutions
for Reducing Global Financial Instability,” Journal of Economic
Perspectives 13, Fall 1999, 21-42. Also NBER Working paper 7265, July
1999.
“Official
Creditor Seniority and Burden Sharing in the Former Soviet Bloc,” (by
Jeremy Bulow, Kenneth Rogoff and Afonso Bevilaqua, Brookings Papers in
Macroeconomic Activity 1: 1992, 195-222.
“Dealing with Developing Country Debt in the 1990s,” The World Economy
15, July 1992, 475-86.
“Sovereign
Debt Repurchases: No Cure for Overhang” (with Jeremy Bulow), Quarterly
Journal of Economics 106, November 1991, 1219-35.
“North-South
Lending and Endogenous Domestic Capital Market Inefficiencies,” (with Mark
Gertler), Journal of Monetary Economics 26, October 1990, 245-266.
“Bargaining
and International Policy Cooperation,” American Economic Review 80,
May 1990, 139-142.
“Cleaning
Up Third-World Debt Without Getting Taken To the Cleaners,” (with Jeremy
Bulow), Journal of Economic Perspectives 4 (Winter 1990), 31-42.
“Introduction”
to Symposium on New Institutions for Developing-Country Debt, Journal of
Economic Perspectives 4 (Winter 1990), 3-6.
“Sovereign
Debt: Is to Forgive to Forget?” (with Jeremy Bulow), American Economic
Review 79 (March 1989), 43-50.
“A
Constant Recontracting Model of Sovereign Debt” (with Jeremy Bulow), The
Journal of Political Economy 97 (February 1989), 155-178.
“The
Buyback Boondoggle” (with Jeremy Bulow), Brookings Papers on Economic
Activity: no. 2, 1988, 675-698.
“Multilateral
Negotiations for Rescheduling Developing Country Debt: A Bargaining-Theoretic
Framework” (with Jeremy Bulow), International Monetary Fund Staff Papers
35 (December 1988), 644-657. Reprinted in Jacob A. Frenkel, Michael P.
Dooley and Peter Wickham (eds.), Analytical Issues in Debt
(International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C., 1989).
New Open Economy Macroeconomics
“Risk
and Exchange Rates,” (with Maurice Obstfeld), in Elhanan Helpman and
Effraim Sadka (eds.), Contemporary Economic Policy: Essays in Honor of Assaf
Razin.
“New
Directions for Stochastic Open Economy Models,” (with Maurice Obstfeld),
Journal of International Economics 50, Feb. 2000, 117-53.
“Exchange
Rate Dynamics Redux,” (with Maurice Obstfeld), Journal of Political Economy
103, June 1995, 624-60.
Empirical Exchange Rate Issues
“Can
Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices?” (with Yu-chin Chen and Barbara
Rossi), revised version forthcoming, Quarterly
Journal of Economics, 2010. Also available as NBER working paper 13901, June
2008.
“‘Exchange
Rate Models Are Not as Bad as You Think’: A comment,” forthcoming in
Daron Acemoglu, Kenneth Rogoff, and Michael Woodford (eds.), NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2007,
Cambridge, MA: MIT Press for the National Bureau of Economic Research, 2008.
“Exchange Rate Durability and Performance in Developing versus Advanced Economies” (with Aasim Husain and Ashoka Mody), Journal of Monetary Economics 52 (January 2005), 35-64. (An earlier version appeared as NBER Working paper 10673, August 2004).
The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation, (with Carmen M. Reinhart) Quarterly Journal of Economics 119(1):1-48, February 2004. An earlier version appeared as NBER Working Paper 8963 (June 2002).
Evolution and Performance of Exchange Rates Regimes, (with Aasim M. Husain, Ashoka Mody, Robin J. Brooks, and Nienke Oomes), International Monetary Fund Occasional Paper 229, 2004. Earlier version IMF Working Paper WP03/243, December 2003.
“Commodity
Currencies” (with Yu-chin Chen), Journal
of International Economics 60 (May 2003), 133-160.
“Dornbusch’s
Overshooting Model After 25 years: IMF Mundell-Fleming Lecture,”
International Monetary Fund Staff Papers 49, Special Issue 2002, 1-35,
including remarks by Rudiger Dornbusch. An earlier version appeared as International
Monetary Fund Working Paper 02/39.
“The
Failure of Empirical Exchange Rate Models: No Longer New but Still True,”
Economic Policy Web
Essay, October 2001, Issue 1, volume 1.
“Monetary
Models of Dollar/Yen/Euro Nominal Exchange Rates: Dead or UnDead?” Economic
Journal 109, November 1999, F655-F659.
“Perspectives
on Exchange Rate Volatility,” in International Capital Flows, edited
by Martin Feldstein (Chicago: University of Chicago Press and the NBER, 1999),
441-53.
“The
Risks of Unilateral Exchange Rate Pegs,” in The Implications of
Globalization of World Financial Markets, Alan Meltzer (ed.) (Seoul: The
Bank of Korea, 1998), 153-170.
“The
Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle,” Journal of Economic Literature 34,
June 1996, 647-68.
“The
Mirage of Fixed Exchange Rates,” (with Maurice Obstfeld), Journal of
Economic Perspectives 9, Fall 1995, 73-96.
“Perspectives on PPP and Long-Run Real Exchange Rates,” (with Ken Froot), in
Handbook of International Economics vol. 3, Gene Grossman and Kenneth
Rogoff (eds.), (Amsterdam: Elsevier Science Publishers B.V., 1995): 1647-88. NBER Working Paper 4952.
“Traded Goods Consumption Smoothing and the Random Walk Behavior of the Real
Exchange Rate,” Bank of
“Was It Real? The Exchange Rate-Interest Differential Relation Over the
Modern Floating Rate Period” (with Richard Meese), Journal of Finance
43 (September 1988), 933-948.
“On
the Effects of Sterilized Intervention: An Analysis of Weekly Data,” Journal
of Monetary Economics 14, (September 1984), 133-150.
“Empirical
Exchange Rate Models of the Seventies: Do They Fit Out of Sample?” (with Richard
Meese), Journal of International Economics 14 (February 1983), 3-24. (See
also “The
Failure of Empirical Exchange Rate Models: No Longer New, But Still True,”
Economic Policy Web Essay, September 2001.)
“The
Out-of-Sample Failure of Empirical Exchange Rate Models: Sampling Error or
Misspecification?” (with Richard Meese), in Jacob Frenkel (ed.), Exchange
Rates and International Macroeconomics (NBER and University of Chicago
Press, 1983), 67-105.
International Monetary Policy Cooperation
“U.S.
Imbalances and the Euro’s Outlook” Cato Journal,
vol 24, Nos. 1-2 (Spring/Summer 2004) 41-43.
“The
Euro at Five: Short-run Pain, Long-run Gain?” Journal
of Policy Modeling 27(4), June 2005, 441-443.
“Why
Not a Global Currency,” American Economic Review 91, May 2001,
243-47.
“Global
Implications of Self-Oriented National Monetary Rules,” (with Maurice
Obstfeld), Quarterly Journal of Economics 117, May 2002, 503-36.
An earlier version of this paper circulated as “Do We Really Need a New
International Monetary Compact?” National
Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 7864, August 2000.
“Achieving Exchange Rate Stability in a Tri-Polar World: A
Target Zone System with a Rotating Anchor,” in Kumiharu Shigehara (ed.) Price
Stabilization in the 1990s, (London: McMillan Press, 1993).
“The
EMS, the EMU, and the Transition to a Common Currency” (with Ken Froot), NBER
Macroeconomics Annual 6, 1991, 269-317.
“Can
Exchange Rate Predictability be Achieved Without Monetary Convergence? --
Evidence from the EMS,” European Economic Review 28 (June-July
1985), 93-115.
“Can
International Monetary Cooperation be Counterproductive?” Journal of
International Economics 18 (May 1985), 199-217.
Current Accounts
“Global Imbalances and Exchange Rate
Adjustment,” Journal
of Policy Modeling 28, (2006): 695-699.
“The
Unsustainable US Current Account Position Revisited” (with Maurice
Obstfeld), in Richard Clarida (ed.), G7 Current Account Imbalances:
Sustainability and Adjustment,
“Global
Current Account Imbalances and Exchange Rate Adjustments,” in William
Brainard and George Perry (eds.), Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 1:67-146,
2005. Appendix
B to the Brookings Papers on Economic Activity version.
“Perspectives
on OECD Capital Market Integration: Implications for U.S. Current Account
Adjustment,” (with Maurice Obstfeld), in Federal Reserve Bank of
“Global
versus Country-Specific Productivity Shocks and the Current Account,” (with
Reuven Glick), Journal of Monetary Economics 35, February 1995, 159-92.
“The Intertemporal Approach to the Current Account,” (with Maurice
Obstfeld), in Handbook of International Economics vol. 3, Gene Grossman
and Kenneth Rogoff (eds.), (Amsterdam: Elsevier Science Publishers B.V., 1995):
1731-99. NBER Working Paper 4893.
Monetary Policy and Central Bank Design
“Impact
of Globalization on Monetary Policy” in Federal Reserve Bank of
“Globalization
and Global Disinflation” in Federal Reserve Bank of
“Foreign
and Underground Demand for Euro Notes: Blessing or Curse?” Economic
Policy 26, April 1998, 263-303.
“Reputational
Constraints on Monetary Policy,” in K. Brunner and A. Meltzer (eds.), Carnegie-Rochester
Conference Series on Public Policy Vol. 26 (Spring 1987). (Supplement to
the Journal of Monetary Economics), 141-181. Revised and reprinted
as “Reputation, Coordination and Monetary Policy” in Robert J. Barro (ed.), Modern
Business Cycle Theory (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1989).
“Ruling
Out Divergent Speculative Bubbles” (with Maurice Obstfeld), Journal of
Monetary Economics 17 (May 1986), 349-362.
“The
Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target,” Quarterly
Journal of Economics 100 (November 1985), 1169-1189. An earlier version
appeared as International
Finance Discussion Paper 230 (September 1983). See also “Social
Institutions for Overcoming Monetary Policy Credibility Problems.” (Paper
presented to the American Economic Association Annual Meetings, New Orleans,
December 1986).
“The
Information Content of the Interest Rate and Optimal Monetary Policy” (with
Matthew Canzoneri and Dale Henderson), Quarterly Journal of Economics 98
(November 1983), 545-566.
“Speculative
Hyperinflations in Maximizing Models: Can We Rule Them Out?” (with Maurice
Obstfeld), Journal of Political Economy 91 (August 1983), 675-687.
Political Budget Cycles
“Equilibrium
Political Budget Cycles,” American Economic Review 80, March 1990,
21-36.
“Elections
and Macroeconomic Policy Cycles” (with Anne Sibert), The Review of
Economic Studies 55 (January 1988), 1-16.
Development
"Exchange Rate Volatility and Productivity Growth: The Role of Financial Development" (with Philippe Aghion; Philippe Bacchetta, and Romain Ranciere), Journal of Monetary Economics 56:4 (May 2009), pp. 494-513. An earlier version appeared as National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 12117, May 2006
“Financial Globalization, A Reappraisal” (with M. Ayhan Kose, Eswar Prasad, and Shang-Jin Wei), International Monetary Fund Staff Papers Vol. 56, issue 1 (April 2009): 8-62. (Also available as revised version of International Monetary Fund, Working Paper WP/06/189, December 2006; and NBER Working Paper No. 12484, August 2006.)
Some Speculation on Growth and Poverty over the Twenty-First Century,” in Sue Collins and Carol Graham, editors, Globalization, Growth and Poverty, The Brookings Trade Forum (2004): 305-311.
Financial
Globalization, Growth and Volatility In Developing Countries” (with Eswar
Prasad, Ayhan Kose and Shang-Jin Wei), National Bureau of Economic
Research Working Paper 10942 (December 2004), in Ann Harrison (ed.) Globalization
and Poverty,
“Extending the Limits of Global Financial Integration,” Journal of Policy Modeling 26(4), June 2004, 519-523.
The Effects of Financial Globalization on Developing Countries: Some Empirical Evidence (with Eswar Prasad, Shang-Jin Wei and Ayhan Kose), International Monetary Fund Occasional Paper 220, 2003. PowerPoint presentation
“FDI to
Africa: The Role of Price Stability and Currency Instability,” (with Carmen
M. Reinhart), in Boris Pleskovic and Nicholas Stern (eds.), Annual World
Bank Conference on Development Economics 2002: The New Reform Agenda, (
General
“Paul
Samuelson’s Contributions to Economics,” in Michael Szenberg, Lall
Ramrattan and Aron Gottesman, editors, Samuelsonian Economics and the
Twenty-First Century, Oxford University Press, 2006 (with minor
revisions).
“The
Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is there a Common Cause?”
(with Maurice Obstfeld), in Ben Bernanke and Kenneth Rogoff (eds.), NBER
Macroeconomics Annual 2000 (
“Strategic Perspectives on Economic Policy,” in Andrew Stevenson and David
Vines (eds.), Information, Strategic Behavior and Economic Policy,
(London: Basil Blackwell, 1991).
“Exchange
Rate Dynamics with Sluggish Prices under Alternative Price-Adjustment Rules”
(with Maurice Obstfeld), International Economic Review 25 (February
1984), 159-174.
“Time-Series
Studies of the Relationship Between Exchange Rates and Intervention: A Review
of the Techniques and Literature,” Federal Reserve Staff Studies No.
132 (September 1983).
“Negative
Net Foreign Asset Positions and Stability in a World Portfolio Balance Model”
(with Dale Henderson), Journal of International Economics 13 (August
1982), 85-104.
“The
Consistent Application of Boundary Conditions in Rational Expectations Models”
(with Matthew Canzoneri), Economic Letters 4 (December 1979).
“Addicted
to Dollars,” (with Carmen Reinhart and Miguel Savastano), National Bureau of Economic
Research Working Paper 10015, October 2003.
“The Law of One Price Over Seven Hundred Years,” (with Kenneth Froot and
Michael Kim), International
Monetary Fund Working Paper 01/174. Earlier version, NBER
Working Paper 5132, May 1995. Updated data
appendix, July 2001. Data in zipped
Excel file.
The
Age of Diminished Expectations: U.S. Economic Policy in the 1990s (by
Paul Krugman), Journal of Economic Literature 29 (December 1991),
1753-55.
Exchange
Rate Determination (by Anne O. Krueger), Journal of International
Economics 17 (August 1984), 187-188.
Rational
Expectations (by Steven M. Sheffrin), Journal of Money, Credit and
Banking 17 (November 1985, part 1), 545-546.
Comment
on Paul Krugman, “It’s Baaack:
Comment on “Cross-Border Emerging Market Lending,” by Peter Aerni and George
Jung, in Richard Levich (ed.), Emerging Market Capital Flows, (Boston:
Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1998).
“Monetary Policy Coordination and Convergence,” in Peter Newman,
“
Comment
on L.E.O. Svensson, “Assessing Target Zone Credibility: Mean Reversion and
Devaluation Expectations in the ERM, 1979-1992," European Economic
Review 37 (May 1993).
Comment on Peter Isard, “Fiscal Conditions and Internationalization:
Implications for Monetary Policies and Financial Conditions,” in Peter Hooper
et al. (eds.), Financial Sectors in Open Economies: Empirical Analysis and
Policy Issues, (Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System, 1990).
Comment on Constantijn Claessens and Ishac Diwan, “Market-Based Debt
Reduction,” in Ishrat Husain and Ishac Diwan (eds.), Dealing with the Debt
Crisis, (Washington: World Bank, 1989).
Comment on Alberto Alesina, “Macroeconomics and Politics,” in
Comment on D. Backus, M. Devereux and D. Purvis, “A Positive Theory of
Fiscal Policy in Open Economies,” in Jacob Frenkel (ed.), International
Aspects of Fiscal Policies, (University of Chicago Press and NBER, 1988).
Comment
on Edward C. Prescott, “Theory Ahead of Business Cycle Measurement,” in K.
Brunner and A. Meltzer (eds.), Carnegie Rochester Conference Series on
Public Policy, Vol. 25 (Fall 1986).
Comment on Gilles Oudiz and Jeffrey Sachs, “International Policy
Coordination in Dynamic Macroeconomic Models,” in W.H. Buiter and R.C. Marston
(eds.), International Coordination of Economic Policy, (NBER and Center
for Economic Policy Research, 1985).
Comment on Jose Saul Lizondo, “Interest Differential and Covered Arbitrage,”
in Rudiger Dornbusch and Maurice Obstfeld (eds.), Financial Problems and the
World Capital Market: The Problem of Latin American Countries, (NBER and
University of Chicago Press, 1983).
Bernhard Harms Lecture,
Farash Distinguished Lecture,
Ohlin Lectures, Stockholm University, December 2007
Asian Development Bank Eminent Persons Lecture, October 2007
LACEA Meeting, Bogota, Opening Plenary Lecture, October 2007
Okun Lectures, Yale University, 2006
Walras Pareto Lectures, University of Lausagne, 2006
Griliches Lectures, New Economic School, 2006
Pedro Barrie Lectures, Vigo University, 2005
Graham Lecture, Princeton University, 2004
Harris Lecture, Harvard University, 2004
Razin Lecture, Georgetown University, 2004
Brooks Family Public Lecture, Dartmouth, 2003
Mundell-Fleming Lecture, International Monetary Fund, 2002