Kenneth Rogoff

Recent Papers

(For complete publications, see vitae).

“Can Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices?” (with Yu-chin Chen and Barbara Rossi), revised version forthcoming, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2010. Also available as NBER working paper 13901, June 2008. Abstract

"Global Imbalances and the Financial Crisis: Products of Common Causes" (with Maurice Obstfeld), Harvard University, October 2009.

"Three Epochs of Oil" (with Eyal Dvir), Harvard University, August 11, 2009. Also available as NBER Working Paper No. 14927, April 2009. Abstract

“The Aftermath of Financial Crises (with Carmen M. Reinhart), American Economic Review 99 (May 2009) 466-472. Also available as NBER Working Paper No. 14656, January 2009. Abstract

“Banking Crises: An Equal Opportunity Menace (with Carmen M. Reinhart), manuscript, Harvard University, December 2008. Also available as NBER Working Paper No. 14587, December 2008. Abstract

“Exchange Rate Arrangements into the 21st Century: Will the Anchor Currency Hold? (with Ethan O. Ilzetzki, and Carmen M. Reinhart). This paper includes updates (NOW AVAILABLE ONLINE) to the exchange rate regime classifications in The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation" (with Carmen M. Reinhart), Quarterly Journal of Economics 119(1):1-48, February 2004. See Carmen Reinhart's website for additional background material.

“The Continuing Puzzle of Short-Horizon Exchange Rate Forecasting,” (with Vania Stavrakeva), manuscript, Harvard University, July 30, 2008. Also available as NBER working paper 14071, June 2008. Abstract

“This Time Is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises” (with Carmen Reinhart), manuscript, Harvard University, April 16, 2008. Also available as NBER working paper 13882, March 2008. SHORTER VERSION: This Time Is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises” (with Carmen Reinhart), manuscript, Harvard University, April 2008. Abstract

“The Forgotten History of Domestic Debt,” (with Carmen Reinhart), manuscript, Harvard University, April 17, 2008. Also available as NBER working paper 13946, April 2008. Abstract

“Is the 2007 US Sub-Prime Financial Crisis So Different? An International Historical Comparison” (with Carmen Reinhart), American Economics Review 98 (May 2008):339-344. Also appeared as NBER Working Paper #13761. (Revised version of a paper presented at the AEA annual meetings, New Orleans, January 6, 2008.)

“‘Exchange Rate Models Are Not as Bad as You Think’: A comment,” in Kenneth Rogoff and Michael Woodford (eds.), NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2007, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press for the National Bureau of Economic Research, 2008.

“Global Imbalances and Exchange Rate Adjustment,” Journal of Policy Modeling 28, (2006): 695-699.

“Impact of Globalization on Monetary Policy” in Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City The New Economic Geography: Effects and Policy Implications, 2007. (Revised version of paper presented at Kansas City Federal Reserve “Jackson Hole” conference, August 2006.)

“Paul Samuelson’s Contributions to Economics,” in Michael Szenberg, Lall Ramrattan and Aron Gottesman, editors, Samuelsonian Economics and the Twenty-First Century, Oxford University Press, 2006 (with minor revisions).

“Financial Globalization, A Reappraisal” (with M. Ayhan Kose, Eswar Prasad, and Shang-Jin Wei), International Monetary Fund Staff Papers Vol. 56, issue 1 (April 2009): 8-62. (Also available as a revised version of International Monetary Fund, Working Paper WP/06/189, December 2006; and NBER Working Paper No. 12484, August 2006.) Abstract

"Exchange Rate Volatility and Productivity Growth: The Role of Financial Development" (with Philippe Aghion; Philippe Bacchetta, and Romain Ranciere), Journal of Monetary Economics 56:4 (May 2009), pp. 494-513. An earlier version appeared as National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 12117, May 2006. Abstract

“The Unsustainable US Current Account Position Revisited” (with Maurice Obstfeld; November 2005 version), in Richard Clarida (ed.), G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, University of Chicago Press 2007. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 10869, November 2004. Abstract

Financial Globalization, Growth and Volatility In Developing Countries” (with Eswar Prasad, Ayhan Kose and Shang-Jin Wei), in Ann Harrison (ed.) Globalization and Poverty, University of Chicago Press, 2006. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 10942 (December 2004), Abstract